Global 3D TV Shipments to Hit 4.2 million in 2010

According to iSuppli, a technology market research company, Global 3D TV shipments are expected to reach 4.2 million units in 2010, thanks to increasing traction and acceptance from enthusiastic early adopters. Global 3D TV shipments will then triple to 12.9 million units in 2011 and then more than double to 27.4 million units in 2012.

In 2015, 3D TV shipments will reach 78.1 million units, rising at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 80.2% from 2010.

Among US consumers who purchased a new TV in the first quarter of 2010, 4% indicated they were acquiring one that was 3D capable, with 60% buying a 3D LCD TV and the remaining 40% preferring a 3D plasma set. As of April, 26 TV models featured 3D capability, compared to 23 the previous month.

The majority of 3D TV sales in 2010 will occur in the mature TV regions of the US, Japan, and Western Europe, where sizable markets exist for upgrading or replacing older, non-3D sets. Other countries that have rolled out 3D trials include South Korea and Australia.

"Although robust growth of 3D TV sales appears to be assured during the next few years, mass consumer acceptance will not come until three critical issues are resolved concerning standardization, content availability and interoperability of the 3D glasses used to view the sets," said Riddhi Patel, principal analyst for TV systems at iSuppli.

In the case of standards, the Blu-ray standard for 3D TV establishing 1080p 3D to each eye was set in 2009.

However, other standards are still being worked out to ensure a successful rollout, including HDMI 1.4 for a variety of 3D formats, SMPTE for 60 frames-per-second resolution, CEA for 3D glasses and SCTE for 3D content over cable.

Content is also a critical driver. Although consumers will expect quality similar to the blockbuster movie Avatar, achieving an equivalent immersive experience will depend on content availability, among other factors.

Cognizant of this fact, content providers and broadcasters alike are pooling their efforts to develop 3D content availability and service plans. Already, ESPN has declared its plans to launch the world's first 3D network, while Walt Disney and Sony both have announced 3D Blu-ray title releases for 2010.

A third issue concerns the use of 3D glasses or eyewear: 3D glasses are among the most common 3D TV bundles preferred by consumers, aside from 3D Blu-ray players and 3D Blu-ray movies.

While TV manufacturers might throw in one or even two pairs of 3D glasses to sweeten a 3D TV purchase, additional glasses to accommodate more viewers - either other family members or guests to share the 3D viewing experience - could be expensive. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that 3D glasses will be interoperable among brands - that 3D eyewear bundled or purchased with a particular TV will work with another.

Technology for watching 3D TV without glasses is at least several years away, analysts say.

Concern also has been expressed about potential health hazards posed by viewing 3D TV content. Samsung Electronics has cautioned its Australian customers, for instance, about potential dizziness, motion sickness and disorientation.

Likewise, a research group at the University of California in Berkeley has confirmed the phenomenon of vergence-accommodation conflict, which can lead to fatigue, eye strain and headache. The issue results from the disparity between where the viewers' eyes focus on the screen and where in the 3D image the viewers believe they are looking.

Overall, standards will play a key role in promoting increased adoption of 3D TV in the consumer space, iSuppli believes. Because the 3D value chain from content creation to content consumption is a complex and multilayered system, standards are needed to ensure interoperability, reduce risks in product planning and foster innovation. A lack of standards, on the other hand, will create substantial uncertainty throughout the value chain, hinder 3D product development and discourage consumer adoption.