Study Concludes Blu-ray Not Red-Hot

Consumer studies have been concluding that the general public just isn’t ready to rush out and go Blu since the HD format war has ended. We can probably all agree that focus groups and marketing brain-trusts aren’t going to help Blu-ray, but lower prices certainly will. 

Late last month ABI Research made some waves in high-def news circles when it concluded that Blu-ray isn’t going to dominate the home video market until prices came way down. While we can already hear the collective, sarcastic DUHs – another more recent study provided more detail about where Blu-ray stands today.

ABI Research concluded last month that players need to drop below $200 per unit for Blu-ray to really take off. It also noted that PlayStation 3 units “make up over 85 percent of Blu-ray players in the field.”

A recent study by Harris Interactive surveyed 2,529 people last month. A Harris poll consists of a cross section of Americans from various states, aged 18 and over. There were some interesting results of America’s HD consumer habits:

• 87% of those surveyed owned a DVD player.
• 4% owned a Dedicated Blu-ray player.
• 5% owned a PS3.
• 6% owned an HD DVD player, perhaps just a survey anomaly or maybe HD DVD was on the threshold of some serious consumer inroads.
• 9% said they were likely to buy a Blu-ray player in the next year.
• 35% said they owned an HDTV - it looks like HDTV has some work to do.
• Of those who own an HDTV, 10% own a Blu-ray player.
• 67% said they knew about the recently resolved format war. Of that 67%, 69% said they knew Blu-ray was the winner.

It’s probably not surprising to Audioholics readers that Blu-ray player sales didn’t spike as soon as the format war concluded. This might have been an impression carried by a few market analysts, but it makes some bold assumptions.

For one, there was never a segment of consumer waiting with baited breath for the format war’s conclusion to rush out and buy a new machine. It’s possible that Sony and Toshiba convinced themselves of this optimistic view. But most third party market researchers like ABI believes it’ll be 12 to 18 months before the Blu-ray market picks up.

The numbers might indicate that the consumer confusion around the format war was just a cherry atop a veritable cake of confusion the consumer has about HD and disc technology. But even without confusion, DVD is just too good a deal right now for most consumers to pass up!

A combination of economic slowdown and high prices of players and media will keep Blu-ray a niche product for some time. Once we begin to see sub-$200 players and discs commonly sold at near $10 then you’ll be speaking to the bottom line of the average American consumer. First it has to be affordable – then the Joe Six Packs might actually care about the difference between 480p and 1080p with lossless sound.